Dear Roger
Dear Roger Federer,
I first watched you play in the 2008 Wimbledon Final against Nadal. I had never watched tennis before, but I was enchanted as you waved your Wilson wand mustering a two sets to love comeback to force a 5th set against your rival. I was mesmerized by the beauty of your shot-making and your composure under immense pressure…
No More NextGen – Carlitos Is Here Now
The changing of the guard has finally happened. Carlos Alcaraz won the his maiden grand slam title at the 2022 US Open and with that he becomes the youngest World No. 1 in men’s tennis history (19 years of age!). Nadal lost an aggressive and transformed Frances Tiafoe. Young guns Sinner and Alcaraz battled for 5 sets in the QF dazzling the crowd late into the New York night with endless jaw dropping tennis. That QF was dripping in quality worthy of a final. We seem destined to witness many more clashes between the Alcaraz and Sinner in what is becoming a budding rivalry. Sinner become the youngest man since Djokovic to reach the QF or better at all the majors in a the same year. Djokovic and Nadal aren’t completely dethroned yet, but the NextGen is here now ready to fight and win their share of titles with or without them in the draw. Listen to our analysis of all this and more.
Nadal Feeling 22 & Anderson Good-bye
Nadal won his 14th French Open title and 22nd grand slam overall. The distance between Nadal and his rivals, Djokovic and Federer, is widening. Nadal’s greatness on clay knows no bounds. On the grass at Wimbledon, Nadal has the chance to keep his hopes alive for the calendar slam. He has won Wimbledon twice, but he hasn’t played on the surface for 3 years. His last match at Wimbledon was a four set defeat to Roger Federer in the semi-finals. Besides Djokovic, who is the favorite, and Nadal, who else has the best chance of winning Wimbledon this year? We also cover the career of Kevin Anderson, who recently announced his retirement. The two time grand slam finalist was always a pleasure to watch. How do his career stats look? His big man game was exceptional on the grass especially.
Alcaraz & Djokovic Rising – RG Preview
Nadal’s clay court winning percentage in 2022 is the lowest it has been since before he captured his first French Open title in 2005. His injuries and lack of form don’t make him the automatic favorite at this year’s Roland Garros. Djokovic is finally in fine form, but he has drawn Nadal in his quarter and the rapidly ascending Alcaraz in his half of the draw. What will unfold at RG? Can Tsitsipas navigate his easier draw to make the final for the second year in a row? Or will Zverev continue his fine clay court play to make his second grand slam final? One thing’s for sure, this RG seems much more wide open then previous years.
The Alcaraz & Tsitsipas Show
Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz came out of relative obscurity to capture an ATP 1000 in Miami and an ATP 500 in Barcelona. He just became the youngest man to crack the ATP Top 10 in 17 years since Rafael Nadal. He was also impressive in winning both finals in straight sets. He has showed he’s got game on clay by defeating 2 time Monte Carlo champ Tsitsipas in Barcelona. Tsitsipas has followed up his amazing 2021 clay court campaign with impressive results, namely defending his title at Monte Carlo and showing he can produce consistent results on the clay once again. With Nadal waiting in the wings due to injury, but ready to return in Madrid and a Djokovic struggling to regain his match fitness; this clay court season could produce wild and unexpected results. Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, and Rublev have shown that they could produce deep runs at Roland Garros, which is only a month away.
Rafa’s Triumph
Rafael Nadal defeated Danil Medvedev from two sets to love down to win his second Aussie Open Title, his second career slam, and 21st slam overall. The way he defeated his opponent, who is a decade younger than him, was astounding. We bring you the numbers behind Rafa’s triumph. Each set was a roller coaster. Nadal not only set records with the win he also denied Medvedev a record of his own. He would have been the first male to win his first two consecutive majors.
Djokovic Drama
Preps are underway down under. Djokovic received an exemption from the Aussie Open to compete without being vaccinated. If Djokovic isn’t on his A game, who else can capitalize and nab the title? Nadal looks in form to start 2022 as he looks to capture his second slam title down under, tie Djokovic with winning each major at least twice, and break the three way tie with Djokovic and Federer for most slams all time. The #NextGen led by Medvedev and Zverev is also hungry for a title down under…
ATP Finals – Top Ten Things We Learned (2021)
Another ATP season is in the books. Here at 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP) on Episode 43 we cover the top ten things we learned at the year end event where the top 8 players in the world battled for supremacy. We discuss the latest matches, numbers, and trends that defined this final tournament of the year.
Parity at Indian Wells
Indian Wells has been dominated by Djokovic and Federer. But the last three years someone unexpected from the field has claimed the prestigious title in the desert at what many refer to as the “5th Slam”. With Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal absent at this year’s edition of Indian Wells there were ample opportunities for the rest of the field. Cam Norrie was one of those players that fought through to win his maiden masters 1000 title. We discuss the numbers and how he has had an excellent season in 2021. Without the Big 3, tennis must go on.
How Djokovic Finally Won by Losing
Djokovic may have come up short in his bid to capture the calendar slam, but he may have won something else greater in the process. Medvedev became a grand slam champion and again no one has defended their title in New York since 2008, when Roger Federer won his 5th consecutive title. Why does the US Open have more parity than the other slams? We discuss this and more and as always we explore the numbers behind the matches.
Has the Golden Age of Men’s Tennis Just Ended?
Heading into the final major of the year Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic are all tied at 20 majors a piece. But they are also struggling with injuries. Federer and Nadal are at least out until the end of the season. While Djokovic is trying to win the elusive calendar slam. How have their long seasons and past matches impacted their physical bodies? Mileage is definitely a factor for the Big 3. We may never see all three players fully healthy on the tour again. Has the golden age of men’s tennis finally come to a close? Who will win the US Open? Djokovic or a young gun such as Zverev, the singles gold medalist.
Djokovic with the Equalizer
20-20-20 Djokovic has now tied Federer and Nadal with 20 grand slams a piece. Djokovic is also still in contention to win the “golden calendar slam”. With 6 Wimbledon Titles behind Federer’s 8, Djokovic has become a force on the grass. What makes him so unstoppable at Wimbledon? One stat in particular stands out. What other players stood out through the stats in a Wimbledon that turned into a coronation?
Tsitsipas is the Federer of Clay
Tsitsipas pushed Djokovic to the brink in the French Open Final. He went up 2 sets to love but could not finish him off. Djokovic has now moved within one major title of his rivals, Federer and Nadal. Tsitsipas has been a dominant force on the clay the past two years. He wins differently than Nadal or Djokovic and the numbers back that up. The numbers show that he plays like Roger, at least on clay. The season now shifts to the grass where Novak Djokovic will look to continue his domination at Wimbledon. Federer, the 8 time Wimby champ, struggled on the grass at Halle. Will his find his form in time to hoist a 9th crown?
Episode 38 – Nadal/Djokovic vs The #NEXTGEN
For the first time Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer were drawn in the same half of a grand slam. Nadal comes into RG as the usual strong favorite. But who is likely face potentially Nadal or Djokovic in the final? Thiem, the prince of clay, still hasn’t found his form. Who will rise up in the other half of the draw to challenge for the French Open title? The time is now for the #NEXTGEN or any other player bold enough. Ruud, Rublev, Opelka, Tsitsipas among others could become slam finalists for the first time. We cover all the numbers on the ATP tour including numbers surrounding Federer’s disappointing tour comeback.
Episode 37 – Zverev – The Spanish Conqueror
Zverev conquered not only Nadal on his favorite surface, but also secured his 4th Masters Title and 2nd in Madrid. 3 out of his 4 Masters titles have now come on clay. What makes Zverev so good on clay? Nadal won Barcelona by saving a match point and dispatching Tsitsipas in a thrilling fashion. But by Nadal’s clay court season standards this is one of his worst on record. Even if he loses in Rome he will still be a favorite at the French. But who would be the 2nd and 3rd favorites? The young players are making their case that they can not only defeat Nadal but also take home the big titles on clay. As always we bring you the numbers behind the matches.
Episode 36 – Maiden Masters
Tsitsipas and Hurkacz each won their maiden Masters 1000 titles. The Big 3 aren’t going anywhere but the young guys keep getting better. Rublev took out Nadal in 3 sets on his beloved clay in Monte Carlo. Tsitsipas and Sinner have also been a force on the clay. With Thiem struggling who will rise to challenge the mighty Nadal on his favorite surface?
Episode 35 – Aussie Awesomeness
Djokovic has now won 8 out of the past 11 Aussie Titles and 9 total. What makes him so dominant down under? There were many dynamic matches including Tsitsipas’ triumph over Nadal from 2 sets down. How did he do it? What do the numbers reveal? As always we talk about the legacy of the Big 3 and the up and coming Next Gen. The Russian duo of Rublev and Medvedev continues to impress and the great Roger Federer returns to the ATP tour this week at Doha…
Episode 34 – Aussie Throwbacks
The COVID-19 Pandemic has delayed the first major of the year. With no tennis matches to cover or draw to analyze we take the time to cover past epic matches from the Australian Open. With Fed-Nadal, Wawrinka-Djokovic, and Nadal-Verdasco to name a few. Will Djokovic capture his record extending 9th major title down under? Or will the Next Gen continue their quest for titles? Will Thiem continue his excellent form on the hard courts? It’s time to prepare for a thrilling Aussie Open.
Episode 33 – Magnificent Medvedev
Medvedev won the 2020 ATP Finals in an emphatic fashion by defeating Nadal, Thiem, and Djokovic among others. This marks the 5th new ATP Finals champion in as many years. Is tennis truly seeing a changing of the guard? What makes Medvedev so good on the hard court? Who will win slams in 2021 and why? Listen to find out the answers to these questions and more.
Episode 32 – 20 ALL
Rafael Nadal captured a record extending 13 Roland Garros Titles. He now stands at 20 Grand Slam Titles in total. This ties him with Roger Federer for the most Grand Slam Titles (by men). The score is now an even 20-20 in the crazy year of 2020. We cover this achievement and all the stats surrounding the short clay court swing and indoor season. Why is Medvedev so bad on clay yet so effective on hard court? Which player has improved the most in 2020? Which players have proved to play well on every surface? Nadal didn’t drop a set en route to another RG title, is he somehow still getting statistically better? Tune in to hear the answers to these questions and more at #15-30.
Thiem’s Time to Shine
Dominic Thiem won his first grand slam title. Zverev made his maiden slam final. We bring you the numbers behind the matches from the US Open. How did our serve factor model do in predicting match outcomes? Which players impressed and which ones disappointed? Another 5 set final is in the books. A trend has been made. The Big 3’s stranglehold on the major titles maybe starting to loosen…
Episode 30 – The Next Gen Have Arrived…By DEFAULT
The US Open quarterfinal match ups are set. Novak Djokovic was defaulted in the 4th round for inadvertently hitting a line judge. No one left in the men’s draw is a former grand slam champion. We cover the stats and the best matches of the tourney thus far. The serve factor is yet again proving to be a valuable tool except in matches full of tie breakers…
The young guns + Carreno Busta will battle for the trophy and glory. Someone will win their maiden slam for the first time since 2014. The Big 3’s grip on the slams is weakening even if it’s only by default. Who will take home the trophy?
The Serve Factor
Here at 15-30 we have developed a simple, new tool to analyze matches, the serve factor. It combines 1st serve in % with 1st and second serve points won to give one metric to compare opponents.
Serve Factor = 1st Serve % (decimal) * 1st Serve + 2nd Serve
Where the 1st serve and 2nd serve are the percent of 1st serve and 2nd serve points won as a whole number.
It is simple to calculate, but powerful when contrasting two opposing players. The power comes from taking the differential of the serve factors for two players. Once enough points have been played so there is a sufficient set of data the serve factor differential tells you not only if a player is winning or will win but how decisively. The empirical results from using the serve factor during later rounds of the Australian Open 2020 and US Open 2020 are tabulated below.
Episode 29 – French Connection
We cover two past fascinating Roland Garros matches because we are badly missing the French Open which would be taking place right now if it wasn’t for the pandemic. We also discuss career numbers of Sampras, Agassi, and the Big 3. You will be surprised to see who has the highest serve rating…
Episode 28 – Throwback Thursday
Here at 15-30 we are bringing you stats from past epic matches such as Borg and McEnroe’s battle at Wimbledon in 1980 and Sampras and Aggassi’s epic clash at the US open in 2001. As always we bring you the numbers behind the epic matches as tennis and the rest of the world remains on hold.
Episode 27 – Tennis on a Historical Hold
COVID-19 has shutdown the world and tennis is no exception. Indian Wells, Miami, the European Clay Court Swing, the grass court season, and Wimbledon are all officially cancelled. Wimbledon hadn’t previously cancelled since World War II. We cover what we think the rest of the season will look like. Which players gain the most from the extended hiatus? Which players are the most disadvantaged? The Coronavirus seems to be the only thing that stop the Big 3…
Episode 26 – Andy Djokovic
The Australian Open has been Djokovic’s most successful grand slam tourney. He has conquered his rival Andy Murray in 4 finals down under. Murray and Djokovic play a similar brand of tennis. Why has Djokovic been so much more successful than Murray? As is often the case the numbers tell an interesting story…
Episode 25 – Serve Factors Down Under
Here at 15-30 we have developed a simple, new tool to analyze matches, the serve factor. It combines 1st serve in % with 1st and second serve points won to give one metric to compare opponents. We discuss how effective it has been at predicting winners at the 2020 Australian Open and its limitations. So far it hasn’t worked for one particular player…
Episode 24 – 2019 ATP Recap
2019 was a fantastic season for Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal who each bagged two grand slams. Nadal also ended the season as the top ranked player. Nadal only won one slam in 2018. How did his stats change between 2018 and 2019? The answers are fascinating. Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas reached career high rankings due to fantastic hard court and indoor seasons. How were they able to improve their games to reach new heights in 2019? So many answers, but even more questions heading into the 2020 season. The Big 3 have maintained their dominance thus far. But for how much longer? Does Roger Federer have it in him to lift another grand slam trophy?
Episode 23 – Indoor Tennis Stats
Federer, Djokovic, and the Nextgen have been impressive during the indoor tennis season in Europe. Federer won a record 10th title on his home turf at Basel. What makes Federer so good indoors? The ATP Finals have a unique format that consists of the Top 8 players battling for the final trophy of the season. Which players statistically look primed to take the title?
Episode 22 – Win Percentage
What percentage of points does the world number 1 usually win over the course of an ATP season? What matches have been won despite the victor winning significantly less points over all? We cover these stats along with updates from the tour as they battle on the Asian hard court swing.
Episode 21 – Oh the Distance You’ll Cover
2019 was another historic year with the Big 3, namely Nadal and Djokovic, splitting the 4 majors. Nadal moves to 19 grand slams, one behind Roger Federer’s leading 20. The US Open was exhilarating with Medvedev making yet another summer hard court final. He went down two sets to love and then roared back to push Nadal to 5 sets and to the brink. Nadal and Medvedev covered an incredible amount of distance per point, which added to the epicness of the final. We cover all the stats from the second week including the thrilling 5 set final. What stats changed in the final that gave Medvedev a way back into the match?
Episode 20 – Hardcourt Madness
The North American hard court season has reached its pinnacle, the US Open. The Citi Open, Canadian Open, and the Cincinnati Masters were all hard fought with different winners at each tournament. The common denominator was young gun, Daniil Medvedev. He made the final each tourney and didn’t triumph until winning Cincy, his maiden Masters 1000 title. How will he and the rest of the NEXT GEN fare in the last major of the season? Will anyone be able to stop the dominance of the Big 3? We also uncover one significant stat that each of the Big 3 somehow manages to continue to improve.
Episode 19 – Spectacular Wimbledon Final
Federer and Djokovic battled in a final for the ages. Margins were razor slim with tennis history in the balance. The numbers make a compelling case that Federer was the better the player on the day, but he still came out on the losing end. We discuss the numbers as well as the intangibles that made Djokovic the more clutch player and allowed him to capture his 5th Wimbledon trophy and 16th major title.
Episode 18 – Grass. How to Grab the Trophy at SW19
Wimbledon is underway. The Big 3 are dominating. The big servers and young guns are struggling. Is a slower court speed to blame? What does it take to win on grass? What tactics are effective and what stats are key to winning on the only living tennis surface? We discuss this and more.
Episode 17 – The King & The Prince of Clay
Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem are at the height of their powers as rulers on the terre battue. But as far as the Roland Garros Title count goes Rafa reigns supreme with 12. How did Nadal overcome a 5 match losing streak to his archrival Roger Federer? How did Thiem again triumph over Djokovic on clay? The truth is in the numbers. We cover all the difference making stats from the semi-finals to the finals.
Episode 16 – What Stats are Key at the French Open?
The semi-finals are set. Federer versus the all time clay court great, Rafa Nadal and Djokovic versus the prince of clay Dominic Thiem. All the numbers and matches that led up to the final rounds are dissected. The most interesting stat and best match of the tourney thus far are shared. What does it take to win on clay from an analytics standpoint?
Episode 15 – 2nd Greatest Clay Courter
The clay court season is in full swing. Who are the French Open Favorites? Can the all time great, Rafael Nadal, maintain his dominance at the FO despite a lackluster start to the clay this year? Who is the 2nd greatest clay courter of all time? Answers to these questions are discussed through the lens of statistics.
Episode 14 – Clay Dominance
What are Nadal’s odds at winning a French Open title this year? We break down past years and what was different the years he failed to win the French open in 2009, 2015, 2016. We also talk about Clay court theory. How to win matches on clay. We coined new phrases to better discuss those methods. Dominic Thiem’s improving clay court numbers are also addressed.
Episode 13 – Miami & Head to Head Effects
Two of the biggest Masters events of the year are over. Miami and Indian Wells crowned two different champs and again saw the rise of the Next Gen players yet the continued dominance of the establishment. We dive into head to head match ups in the sport and their influence on win probability. How big of an impact is head to head?
Episode 12 – Indian Wells 2019
Ben shares his exciting experience of watching the second round in beautiful Indian Wells. As usual, we dive into the stats behind the matches. We compare the career stats of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Kyrgios and others to their numbers at IW. Listen to find out who is trending up and what stats are key to their success in the desert and the rest of the season.
Episode 11 – Post Aussie Open 2019
Ben shares his exciting experience of watching the second round in beautiful Indian Wells. As usual, we dive into the stats behind the matches. We compare the career stats of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Kyrgios and others to their numbers at IW. Listen to find out who is trending up and what stats are key to their success in the desert and the rest of the season.
Episode 10 – 2019 Aussie Open
The first 4 rounds of the 2019 Australian Open are in the books. The establishment is clashing with the young guns of the Next Gen. Who is left in the tournament and what exciting match ups lie ahead? We have all the numbers and analyses from the best matches.
Episode 9 – 2019 Forecast
Happy Holidays from us at 15-30! The New Year is around the corner. That means more tennis. Many players are busy training preparing for glory at the Aussie Open. What will 2019 have in store? Djokovic’s continued return to dominance or a Fedal repeat of 2017? Or maybe just maybe the dawn of a new era will be formed by the minting of new champions – young and old. We have made our bold tennis predictions for 2019.
Episode 8 – End of the 2018 ATP Season
The final tournaments have ended. Victors have been crowned and upsets scored. Join us as we analyze the numbers behind the Paris Masters and the ATP World Tour Finals. Djokovic, Federer, Zverev, and Khachanov all made their moves as the season ended. How did Del Potro play statistically in 2018 compared to his peak, 2009? How does 2018 Federer stack up to 2007 Fed? These answers and more on Episode 8 of 15-30.
Episode 7 – Basel, Vienna, & New Wimby Rule 2018
Federer triumphed for the ninth time at his home tourney of Basel and Nishikori lost another final, this one to Anderson at Vienna. Wimbledon introduced a new rule regarding a tiebreaker in the 5th set. How many matches will it affect? What do we have to look forward towards the end of another exhilarating tennis season? And the quest for year end world No. 1 continues…
Episode 6 – US Open 2018 Recap
Novak Djokovic triumphed at the US Open. Is he back to his top form that he exhibited in 2015-2016? What about the young up and coming Next Gen players? What was the match of the 2018 US Open? Listen to the episode to find out.
Episode 5 – Talking Tennis with Dr. Stephanie Kovalchik
Dr. Kovalchik obtained her PhD in statistics from UCLA and now works at Tennis Australia as a data scientist immersed in tennis. We talk about her findings including applying the Pythagorean win theorem to tennis, pressure ratings, and many other cutting-edge analytics that can help us better understand the modern game of tennis. Two rounds into the US Open she even gives her group’s picks for the men and women’s singles champions…
Episode 4 – Rogers Cup, Cincinnati Masters, & Beyond
Tsistpas made it all the way to the final, and upset four top 10 players en route, until his eventual defeat to Rafa Nadal in Canada. Djokovic finally defeated Federer to win the only masters that eluded him in Cincy. We bring you all the stats behind the matches as well as the preview to this year’s US Open. No male has defended his title in 10 years at the open, will Nadal defend his title?
Episode 3 – Elo & Next Gen
In Episode 3 we cover the basis for elo its power in providing statistics for match ups. We also dive into the ATP’s “Next Gen” players. The young guns: Zverev, Tsitsipas, and Kyrgios are discussed. With players like these tennis has a bright future. Zverev’s woes at the major tournaments are also discussed.
Episode 2 – Wimbledon
15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP) covers the statistics of ATP tour throughout the year. The various matches Wimbledon are covered with special attention to the Federer-Anderson quarterfinal and the two record breaking semi-final matches that exhilarated tennis fans around the world. Each match is broken down by the statistical categories that had the greatest impact on the outcome. IBM keys to the match are discussed as a tool to better understand a given match. Federer and Nadal are supplanted by a rejuvenated Djokovic 10 years after their epic 5 set final that saw Nadal reach world number 1 for the first time.
Episode 1 – Introduction
8 Penny Pinching Tips
1. Be Conservation-Minded
Turn of the lights. Throw away less food. Being wasteful over time can accumulate in lost savings. Think of it as improving efficiency. The closer you approach money out = benefits generated the more you save!
Tennis – Zen Warfare
You’re on an island. No subs or a fourth quarter buzzer to bail you out. No sport is less forgiving. You need to know when to go for it and which shot to dig out of your repertoire. It’s all out war; vicious spins, lightening fast opponents, and thundering serves. Billie Jean King once said that, “Tennis is a perfect combination of violent action taking place in an atmosphere of total tranquility.”
How to Follow Your Passion
“YOLO” advocates will tell you that you should pursue your dream no matter the risk or cost. However, it isn’t that simple. It is important to assess your own tolerance for risk in your career choices before planning your next move.
Budgeting: Why do it?
Budget your money. It’s what your parents told you in college. It’s what every financial adviser implores. It’s sage advice that is so often quoted that it’s become cliché.
Why do cars heat up so quickly in the summer and get so cold in the winter?
Why does tile feel colder than carpet?
Why do large bodies of water take so long to heat up?
Why do computers have fins embedded in their circuitry?
Compound Interest: Make It Work For You
When Albert Einstein was asked what mankind’s greatest invention was his reply likely stunned many engineers and scientists of his time.
Mission Statement
Welcome to Cognition Sphere, a blog dedicated to sharing personal anecdotes and concepts to help you live life a little smarter. Each writer will blog on topics he or she feels passionate about. A few topics I hope to cover over the coming months include: cooking, personal finance, sports, engineering, literature, fashion, Spanish, and science in everyday life to name a few. I am excited to share my desire of lifelong learning with others.
This site is also home to my new podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP) co-hosted by Matt S. 15-30 focuses on tennis statistics from the ATP World Tour. Behind every number there is a story to be told, especially in the golden era of men’s tennis.
“Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.”
-Mahatma Gandhi