Month: February 2020

Andy Djokovic


The Australian Open has been Djokovic’s most successful grand slam tourney. He has conquered his rival Andy Murray in 4 finals down under. Murray and Djokovic play a similar brand of tennis. Why has Djokovic been so much more successful than Murray? As is often the case the numbers tell an interesting story…

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Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Serve Factors Down Under


Here at 15-30 we have developed a simple, new tool to analyze matches, the serve factor. It combines 1st serve in % with 1st and second serve points won to give one metric to compare opponents. We discuss how effective it has been at predicting winners at the 2020 Australian Open and its limitations. So far it hasn’t worked for one particular player…

Serve Factor = 1st Serve % (decimal) * 1st Serve + 2nd Serve

Where the 1st serve and 2nd serve are the percent of 1st serve and 2nd serve points won as a whole number.

Δ Serve Factor = Serve Factor of the winner – Serve factor of the loser

On average we saw that a Δ Serve Factor of about 30+ is a decisive straight sets win. 20 was a tight 3 setter or a decisive 4 setter. 10 was a tight 4 setter or a decisive 5 setter. <10 was a tight 5 setter.

To view our spreadsheet highlighting Serve Factors and other stats from the 2020 Aussie Open Click Here