Here at 15-30 we have developed a simple, new tool to analyze matches, the serve factor. It combines 1st serve in % with 1st and second serve points won to give one metric to compare opponents. We discuss how effective it has been at predicting winners at the 2020 Australian Open and its limitations. So far it hasn’t worked for one particular player…
Serve Factor = 1st Serve % (decimal) * 1st Serve + 2nd Serve
Where the 1st serve and 2nd serve are the percent of 1st serve and 2nd serve points won as a whole number.
Δ Serve Factor = Serve Factor of the winner – Serve factor of the loser
On average we saw that a Δ Serve Factor of about 30+ is a decisive straight sets win. 20 was a tight 3 setter or a decisive 4 setter. 10 was a tight 4 setter or a decisive 5 setter. <10 was a tight 5 setter.
To view our spreadsheet highlighting Serve Factors and other stats from the 2020 Aussie Open Click Here