Dear Roger

Dear Roger Federer,

I first watched you play in the 2008 Wimbledon Final against Nadal. I had never watched tennis before, but I was enchanted as you waved your Wilson wand mustering a two sets to love comeback to force a 5th set against your rival. I was mesmerized by the beauty of your shot-making and your composure under immense pressure. From that day on, I watched as many of your matches as I could live on TV (and a few in person!). I’d often sacrifice sleep and wake up in the middle of the night to watch you play. You also inspired me to pick up a racquet and learn to play tennis. I love tennis and play regularly to this day because of your influence. When you won I was euphoric. And when you lost I was devastated, sometimes for days. But I know now that there are more important things in life than winning and losing. You are a champion. And even a champion with 20 grand slams loses from time to time. Sometimes you had an off day or were physically struggling or your opponent on the other side of the net just played better that day. Life is the same as tennis, we can’t always win them all. But that doesn’t stop us from fighting. You always fought and did your best to the bitter end. You were fun to watch because even if you were losing you would keep fighting and sometimes even find a way to comeback and win. The quarters of Wimbledon against Cilic in 2016 is a great example of that fact. You taught me and the rest of the tennis world how to win with class, but also how lose with class. In fact, one of my favorite matches was the 2019 Wimbledon Final that you played in a losing effort to Djokovic. That day tennis truly won just as it did in the 2008 Wimbledon final. You never retired from a match in your career. You respected the game, your opponents, everyone around you, and yourself. Your unique attacking game that looked so elegant and effortless will be missed. It cannot be fully replicated because there will never be another Roger Federer. I’m proud to say you are my favorite athlete and the GOAT in my personal book. And you always will be.

No More NextGen – Carlitos Is Here Now

The changing of the guard has finally happened. Carlos Alcaraz won the his maiden grand slam title at the 2022 US Open and with that he becomes the youngest World No. 1 in men’s tennis history (19 years of age!). Nadal lost an aggressive and transformed Frances Tiafoe. Young guns Sinner and Alcaraz battled for 5 sets in the QF dazzling the crowd late into the New York night with endless jaw dropping tennis. That QF was dripping in quality worthy of a final. We seem destined to witness many more clashes between the Alcaraz and Sinner in what is becoming a budding rivalry. Sinner become the youngest man since Djokovic to reach the QF or better at all the majors in a the same year. Djokovic and Nadal aren’t completely dethroned yet, but the NextGen is here now ready to fight and win their share of titles with or without them in the draw. Listen to our analysis of all this and more.

Episode-49-No-More-NextGen-Carlitos-Is-Here-Now

Our theme music was brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”. Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

Nadal Feeling 22 & Anderson Good-bye

Nadal won his 14th French Open title and 22nd grand slam overall. The distance between Nadal and his rivals, Djokovic and Federer, is widening. Nadal’s greatness on clay knows no bounds. On the grass at Wimbledon, Nadal has the chance to keep his hopes alive for the calendar slam. He has won Wimbledon twice, but he hasn’t played on the surface for 3 years. His last match at Wimbledon was a four set defeat to Roger Federer in the semi-finals. Besides Djokovic, who is the favorite, and Nadal, who else has the best chance of winning Wimbledon this year? We also cover the career of Kevin Anderson, who recently announced his retirement. The two time grand slam finalist was always a pleasure to watch. How do his career stats look? His big man game was exceptional on the grass especially.

Episode-48-Nadal-Feeling-22-Anderson-Good-bye

Our theme music was brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”. Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

Alcaraz & Djokovic Rising – RG Preview

Nadal’s clay court winning percentage in 2022 is the lowest it has been since before he captured his first French Open title in 2005. His injuries and lack of form don’t make him the automatic favorite at this year’s Roland Garros. Djokovic is finally in fine form, but he has drawn Nadal in his quarter and the rapidly ascending Alcaraz in his half of the draw. What will unfold at RG? Can Tsitsipas navigate his easier draw to make the final for the second year in a row? Or will Zverev continue his fine clay court play to make his second grand slam final? One thing’s for sure, this RG seems much more wide open then previous years.

Episode-47-RG-2022-Predictions-Djokovic-and-Alcaraz-Rising

Our theme music was brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”. Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

Alcaraz & Tsitsipas Show

Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz came out of relative obscurity to capture an ATP 1000 in Miami and an ATP 500 in Barcelona. He just became the youngest man to crack the ATP Top 10 in 17 years since Rafael Nadal. He was also impressive in winning both finals in straight sets. He has showed he’s got game on clay by defeating 2 time Monte Carlo champ Tsitsipas in Barcelona. Tsitsipas has followed up his amazing 2021 clay court campaign with impressive results, namely defending his title at Monte Carlo and showing he can produce consistent results on the clay once again. With Nadal waiting in the wings due to injury, but ready to return in Madrid and a Djokovic struggling to regain his match fitness; this clay court season could produce wild and unexpected results. Tsitsipas, Alcaraz, and Rublev have shown that they could produce deep runs at Roland Garros, which is only a month away.

Episode-46-Alcaraz-and-Tsitsipas-Show

Our theme music was brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”. Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

Rafa’s Triumph

Rafael Nadal defeated Danil Medvedev from two sets to love down to win his second Aussie Open Title, his second career slam, and 21st slam overall. The way he defeated his opponent, who is a decade younger than him, was astounding. We bring you the numbers behind Rafa’s triumph. Each set was a roller coaster. Nadal not only set records with the win he also denied Medvedev a record of his own. He would have been the first male to win his first two consecutive majors.

Episode-45-Rafas-Triumph

Our theme music was brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”. Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

Djokovic Drama

Preps are underway down under. Djokovic received an exemption from the Aussie Open to compete without being vaccinated. If Djokovic isn’t on his A game, who else can capitalize and nab the title? Nadal looks in form to start 2022 as he looks to capture his second slam title down under, tie Djokovic with winning each major at least twice, and break the three way tie with Djokovic and Federer for most slams all time. The #NextGen led by Medvedev and Zverev is also hungry for a title down under…


Our theme music was brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”. Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

ATP Finals – Top Ten Things We Learned (2021)

Another ATP season is in the books. Here at 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP) on Episode 43 we cover the top ten things we learned at the year end event where the top 8 players in the world battled for supremacy. We discuss the latest matches, numbers, and trends that defined this final tournament of the year.

Top 10 Things we learned during the 2021 ATP Finals

  1. Zverev proved that he will win a slam one day if he stays healthy
  2. There is now a Big 2 – Djok and others having to get through Med and Zverev
  3. Medvedev clear No. 2 player of 2021 but Zverev muddies this a little
  4. Ruud’s got game. In his debut makes the semis (sorry Rublev)
  5. But Sinner is the future – #NextNextgen
  6. Turin was a great change of scenery
  7. Fed and Nadal were not really missed at the Finals
  8. Djok/Fed are no longer Kings of the ATP Finals and best of 3 for that matter
  9. Zverev plays with small margins
  10. Medvedev not creating one break opportunity was flukish but concerning
Episode-43-ATP-Finals-Top-10-2021-Edition

Our theme music was brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

Parity at Indian Wells (2021)

Episode-43-Parity-at-Indian-Wells

Indian Wells has been dominated by Djokovic and Federer. But the last three years someone unexpected from the field has claimed the prestigious title in the desert at what many refer to as the “5th Slam”. With Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal absent at this year’s edition of Indian Wells there were ample opportunities for the rest of the field. Cam Norrie was one of those players that fought through to win his maiden Masters 1000 title. We discuss the numbers and how he has had an excellent season in 2021. Without the Big 3, tennis must still go on.

Our theme music was brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

How Djokovic Finally Won by Losing

Djokovic may have come up short in his bid to capture the calendar slam, but he may have won something else greater in the process. Medvedev became a grand slam champion and again no one has defended their title in New York since 2008, when Roger Federer won his 5th consecutive title. Why does the US Open have more parity than the other slams? We discuss this and more and as always we explore the numbers behind the matches.

How Djokovic Won by Losing


Our theme music was brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

Has the Golden Age of Men’s Tennis Just Ended?

Heading into the final major of the year Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic are all tied at 20 majors a piece. But they are also struggling with injuries. Federer and Nadal are at least out until the end of the season. While Djokovic is trying to win the elusive calendar slam. How have their long seasons and past matches impacted their physical bodies? Mileage is definitely a factor for the Big 3. We may never see all three players fully healthy on the tour again. Has the golden age of men’s tennis finally come to a close? Who will win the US Open? Djokovic or a young gun such as Zverev, the singles gold medalist.

Has the Golden Age of Tennis Just Ended?

Djokovic with the Equalizer

20-20-20 Djokovic has now tied Federer and Nadal with 20 grand slams a piece. Djokovic is also still in contention to win the “golden calendar slam”. With 6 Wimbledon Titles behind Federer’s 8, Djokovic has become a force on the grass. What makes him so unstoppable at Wimbledon? One stat in particular stands out. What other players stood out through the stats in a Wimbledon that turned into a coronation?

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

Djokovic with the Equalizer

Tsitsipas is the Federer of Clay

Tsitsipas pushed Djokovic to the brink in the French Open Final. He went up 2 sets to love but could not finish him off. Djokovic has now moved within one major title of his rivals, Federer and Nadal. Tsitsipas has been a dominant force on the clay the past two years. He wins differently than Nadal or Djokovic and the numbers back that up. The numbers show that he plays like Roger, at least on clay. The season now shifts to the grass where Novak Djokovic will look to continue his domination at Wimbledon. Federer, the 8 time Wimby champ, struggled on the grass at Halle. Will his find his form in time to hoist a 9th crown?

Tsitsipas is the Federer of Clay

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

Nadal/Djokovic vs The #NEXTGEN

For the first time Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer were drawn in the same half of a grand slam. Nadal comes into RG as the usual strong favorite. But who is likely face potentially Nadal or Djokovic in the final? Thiem, the prince of clay, still hasn’t found his form. Who will rise up in the other half of the draw to challenge for the French Open title? The time is now for the #NEXTGEN or any other player bold enough. Ruud, Rublev, Opelka, Tsitsipas among others could become slam finalists for the first time. We cover all the numbers on the ATP tour including numbers surrounding Federer’s disappointing tour comeback.

Nadal/Djokovic vs the NextGen

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

Zverev – The Spanish Conqueror

Zverev conquered not only Nadal on his favorite surface, but also secured his 4th Masters Title and 2nd in Madrid. 3 out of his 4 Masters titles have now come on clay. What makes Zverev so good on clay? Nadal won Barcelona by saving a match point and dispatching Tsitsipas in a thrilling fashion. But by Nadal’s clay court season standards this is one of his worst on record. Even if he loses in Rome he will still be a favorite at the French. But who would be the 2nd and 3rd favorites? The young players are making their case that they can not only defeat Nadal but also take home the big titles on clay. As always we bring you the numbers behind the matches.

Maiden Masters

Tsitsipas and Hurkacz each won their maiden Masters 1000 titles. The Big 3 aren’t going anywhere but the young guys keep getting better. Rublev took out Nadal in 3 sets on his beloved clay in Monte Carlo. Tsitsipas and Sinner have also been a force on the clay. With Thiem struggling who will rise to challenge the mighty Nadal on his favorite surface?

Maiden Masters

Aussie Awesomeness

Novak Djokovic has now won 8 out of the past 11 Aussie Titles and 9 total. What makes him so dominant down under? There were many dynamic matches including Tsitsipas’ triumph over Nadal from 2 sets down. How did he do it? What do the numbers reveal? As always we talk about the legacy of the Big 3 and the up and coming Next Gen. The Russian duo of Rublev and Medvedev continues to impress and the great Roger Federer returns to the ATP tour this week at Doha…

Aussie Awesomeness

Aussie Throwbacks

The COVID-19 Pandemic has delayed the first major of the year. With no tennis matches to cover or draw to analyze we take the time to cover past epic matches from the Australian Open. With Fed-Nadal, Wawrinka-Djokovic, and Nadal-Verdasco to name a few. Will Djokovic capture his record extending 8th major title down under? Or will the Next Gen continue their quest for titles? Will Thiem continue his excellent form on the hard courts? It’s time to prepare for a thrilling Aussie Open.

Magnificent Medvedev

Medvedev won the 2020 ATP Finals in an emphatic fashion by defeating Nadal, Thiem, and Djokovic among others. This marks the 5th new ATP Finals champion in as many years. Is tennis truly seeing a changing of the guard? What makes Medvedev so good on the hard court? Who will win slams in 2021 and why? Listen to find out the answers to these questions and more.

Discover the numbers behind the matches on 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP)

Episode-33-Magnificent-Medvedev

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, please share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

20 ALL

Rafael Nadal captured a record extending 13 Roland Garros Titles. He now stands at 20 Grand Slam Titles in total. This ties him with Roger Federer for the most Grand Slam Titles (by men). The score is now an even 20-20 in the crazy year of 2020. We cover this achievement and all the stats surrounding the short clay court swing and indoor season. Why is Medvedev so bad on clay yet so effective on hard courts? Which player has improved the most in 2020? Which players have proved to play well on every surface? Nadal didn’t drop a set en route to another RG title, is he somehow still getting statistically better? Tune in to hear the answers to these questions and more at #15-30.

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify. Also, be sure to share this podcast with a friend that enjoys tennis.

Thiem’s Time to Shine

Dominic Thiem won his first grand slam title. Zverev made his maiden slam final. We bring you the numbers behind the matches from the US Open. How did our serve factor model do in predicting match outcomes? Which players impressed and which ones disappointed? Another 5 set final is in the books. A trend has been made. The Big 3’s stranglehold on the major titles maybe starting to loosen…

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.

Deck Covered with Clear Corrugated Plastic Pergola

Recently I covered my deck with clear corrugated plastic so our family can enjoy our deck during Seattle’s “Rainy Season”. Huge shout out to Rain and Pine! Their guide to constructing a DIY covered deck was excellent. They are also in the Seattle area and built a beautiful covered deck. I haven’t painted mine yet like they did…

https://www.rainandpine.com/diy-clear-corrugated-covered-pergola-attached-to-the-house-and-an-existing-deck/

Our Deck was quite a bit longer than the one on Rain and Pine. Ours is about 23′ and theirs was 16′. This required us to add a post in the middle of the deck.

It was amazing how sturdy the roof was and how much sturdier it made the deck railing. Before it wiggled a little bit if you tried shaking it. Now with the roof secured to the railing it is rock solid. The covering should also extend the life of our deck since the deck flooring will remain dry.

We deviated from their plan when it came to locking into place the 4×4 posts to the 4×6. We had several more posts than they did and did not want to hassle with securing multiple 2×4’s to each junction point of a post and the 4×6. Instead we opted for a bracket that secures the two together. This made the 4×4 post and the 4×6 rock solid. The downside to this is that the bracket cost $18! We needed 5 of the brackets so that was another $100 bucks added to the project right there, but in the end it was worth it.

In total, it cost us about $950 to build a 23′ x 8′ roof for our deck. This did not include the tools which I already had or borrowed from my Dad. This is an awesome deal considering a 12’x10′ covered pergola on Wayfair costs $1500-$3800+

We built the deck in two days, with about 10 hours of labor total to get the job with two people.

Here is a link to our list of materials and costs of materials:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CAesT7CdHfs-HgNK861iL-qNsqbqZwpU16f-NiVLSO8/edit#gid=0

The Serve Factor

Here at 15-30 we have developed a simple, new tool to analyze matches, the serve factor. It combines 1st serve in % with 1st and second serve points won to give one metric to compare opponents.

Serve Factor = 1st Serve % (decimal) * 1st Serve + 2nd Serve

Where the 1st serve and 2nd serve are the percent of 1st serve and 2nd serve points won as a whole number.

It is simple to calculate, but powerful when contrasting two opposing players. The power comes from taking the differential of the serve factors for two players. Once enough points have been played so there is a sufficient set of data the serve factor differential tells you not only if a player is winning or will win but how decisively. The empirical results from using the serve factor during later rounds of the Australian Open 2020 and US Open 2020 are tabulated below.

Serve FactorResults
>30Decisive 3 set Victory
20-30Tight 3 set Victory
OR
Decisive 4 set Victory
10-20Tight 4 set Victory
OR
Decisive 5 set Victory
<10Tight 5 set Victory
Negative*Rarely seen but can occur when several tie breakers, an injury, or a default decides a match

The greater the margin of the serve factor differential the more dominant the victory. This makes sense because the more points a player can win on his own serve and the more return points he wins (thus hurting his opponent’s serve factor) the greater the odds are of a victory for a player.

The serve factor predicted the winner (in hindsight) of 10/13 matches of the US Open thus far.

The serve factor predicted the winner (in hindsight) of 13/15 matches of the 2020 Aussie Open (4th round-Final). One match that it failed to predict was the Thiem-Nadal match. The differential was Nadal by 5 points thus predicting Nadal would win in a tight 5 setter. In actuality, Thiem won in a tight 4 setter but there were 3 tie breaks and Thiem won all of them.

The other match it failed to predict was the Thiem-Zverev Semi-final. The differential was Zverev by 13 points thus predicting Zverev would win in a tight 4 setter. In actuality, Thiem won in a tight 4 setter but there were two tie breaks and Thiem won both of them. Moral of the story, never count Thiem out especially in tie breaks.

Serve factor’s weaknesses are that it doesn’t take into account tie breaks or break points specifically. The break point omission doesn’t hurt it as badly. Break points are “Built in” due to the measure of the effect a player has on hurting his opponent’s serve factor. But it doesn’t recognize a player who generates tons of break point chances but wastes nearly all of them or a player who gets only a couple break point chances all match but converts all of them.

Tie breaks are difficult because they are a smaller sample size of points and the serve factor model assumes the players continue to play at the same statistical rate in the tie break as they were during the rest of the match. Nerves, players mixing up tactics in the tie breaks, lucky shots, net cords, fatigue, all have a much bigger weight in a tie break than over the course of a set with many more points to spread the chaos over. The tie break can be over in the course of seven points. A seven point lapse in a set might not even necessarily lead to a break but a seven point lapse in a tiebreak is detrimental.

Overall, we think the serve factor is a powerful tool. Take the Medvedev-Rublev quarterfinal at this year’s US Open. Medvedev won in straight sets, two of them tiebreaks and in the first tiebreak he was down 5-1 and then 6-3. The serve factor differential was 16 to Medvedev, thus predicting Medvedev would win in a tight 4 setter. In actuality he ended up winning a tight three setter, but he was one point away from having to win it in 4 sets. All match Rublev was ruthless in his heavy baseline attack after hitting his first serve. The serve factor differential shows us that Medvedev might have gotten a little lucky with not having to play a 4th set. The serve factor overall, shows the quality of a tennis player on a given day.

Click here to view is our spreadsheet that tracks serve factors.

The Next Gen Has Arrived…By DEFAULT

The US Open quarterfinal match ups are set. Novak Djokovic was defaulted in the 4th round for inadvertently hitting a line judge. No one left in the men’s draw is a former grand slam champion. We cover the stats and the best matches of the tourney thus far. The serve factor is yet again proving to be a valuable tool except in matches full of tie breakers…

The young guns + Carreno Busta will battle for the trophy and glory. Someone will win their maiden slam for the first time since 2014. The Big 3’s grip on the slams is weakening even if it’s only by default. Who will take home the trophy?

The French Connection

We cover two past fascinating Roland Garros matches because we are badly missing the French Open which would be taking place right now if it wasn’t for the pandemic. We also discuss career numbers of Sampras, Agassi, and the Big 3. You will be surprised to see who has the highest serve rating…

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Throwback Thursday


Here at 15-30 we are bringing you stats from past epic matches such as Borg and McEnroe’s battle at Wimbledon in 1980 and Sampras and Aggassi’s epic clash at the US open in 2001. As always we bring you the numbers behind the epic matches as tennis and the rest of the world remains on hold.

Tennis on a Historical Hold

COVID-19 has shutdown the world and tennis is no exception. Indian Wells, Miami, the European Clay Court Swing, the grass court season, and Wimbledon are all officially cancelled. Wimbledon hadn’t previously cancelled since World War II. We cover what we think the rest of the season will look like. Which players gain the most from the extended hiatus? Which players are the most disadvantaged? The Coronavirus seems to be the only thing that stop the Big 3…

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Andy Djokovic


The Australian Open has been Djokovic’s most successful grand slam tourney. He has conquered his rival Andy Murray in 4 finals down under. Murray and Djokovic play a similar brand of tennis. Why has Djokovic been so much more successful than Murray? As is often the case the numbers tell an interesting story…

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Serve Factors Down Under


Here at 15-30 we have developed a simple, new tool to analyze matches, the serve factor. It combines 1st serve in % with 1st and second serve points won to give one metric to compare opponents. We discuss how effective it has been at predicting winners at the 2020 Australian Open and its limitations. So far it hasn’t worked for one particular player…

Serve Factor = 1st Serve % (decimal) * 1st Serve + 2nd Serve

Where the 1st serve and 2nd serve are the percent of 1st serve and 2nd serve points won as a whole number.

Δ Serve Factor = Serve Factor of the winner – Serve factor of the loser

On average we saw that a Δ Serve Factor of about 30+ is a decisive straight sets win. 20 was a tight 3 setter or a decisive 4 setter. 10 was a tight 4 setter or a decisive 5 setter. <10 was a tight 5 setter.

To view our spreadsheet highlighting Serve Factors and other stats from the 2020 Aussie Open Click Here

2019 ATP Recap


2019 was a fantastic season for Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal who each bagged two grand slams. Nadal also ended the season as the top ranked player. Nadal only won one slam in 2018. How did his stats change between 2018 and 2019? The answers are fascinating. Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas reached career high rankings due to fantastic hard court and indoor seasons. How were they able to improve their games to reach new heights in 2019? So many answers, but even more questions heading into the 2020 season. The Big 3 have maintained their dominance thus far. But for how much longer? Does Roger Federer have it in him to lift another grand slam trophy?

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Indoor Tennis Stats


Federer, Djokovic, and the Nextgen have been impressive during the indoor tennis season in Europe. Federer won a record 10th title on his home turf at Basel. What makes Federer so good indoors? The ATP Finals have a unique format that consists of the Top 8 players battling for the final trophy of the season. Which players statistically look primed to take the title?

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Win Percentage


What percentage of points does the world number 1 usually win over the course of an ATP season? What matches have been won despite the victor winning significantly less points over all? We cover these stats along with updates from the tour as they battle on the Asian hard court swing.

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Oh the Distance You’ll Cover


2019 was another historic year with the Big 3, namely Nadal and Djokovic, splitting the 4 majors. Nadal moves to 19 grand slams, one behind Roger Federer’s leading 20. The US Open was exhilarating with Medvedev making yet another summer hard court final. He went down two sets to love and then roared back to push Nadal to 5 sets and to the brink. Nadal and Medvedev covered an incredible amount of distance per point, which added to the epicness of the final. We cover all the stats from the second week including the thrilling 5 set final. What stats changed in the final that gave Medvedev a way back into the match?

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Hardcourt Madness


The North American hard court season has reached its pinnacle, the US Open. The Citi Open, Canadian Open, and the Cincinnati Masters were all hard fought with different winners at each tournament. The common denominator was young gun, Daniil Medvedev. He made the final each tourney and didn’t triumph until winning Cincy, his maiden Masters 1000 title. How will he and the rest of the NEXT GEN fare in the last major of the season? Will anyone be able to stop the dominance of the Big 3? We also uncover one significant stat that each of the Big 3 somehow manages to continue to improve.

Please subscribe to our podcast, 15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP), using Google Play, Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.

Theme music brought to you by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Spectacular Wimbledon Final


Federer and Djokovic battled in a final for the ages. Margins were razor slim with tennis history in the balance. The numbers make a compelling case that Federer was the better the player on the day, but he still came out on the losing end. We discuss the numbers as well as the intangibles that made Djokovic the more clutch player and allowed him to capture his 5th Wimbledon trophy and 16th major title.

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod with excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Grass. How to Grab the Trophy at SW19


Wimbledon is underway. The Big 3 are dominating. The big servers and young guns are struggling. Is a slower court speed to blame? What does it take to win on grass? What tactics are effective and what stats are key to winning on the only living tennis surface? We discuss this and more.

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod. With excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

The King & The Prince of Clay


Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem are at the height of their powers as rulers on the terre battue. But as far as the Roland Garros Title count goes Rafa reigns supreme with 12. How did Nadal overcome a 5 match losing streak to his archrival Roger Federer? How did Thiem again triumph over Djokovic on clay? The truth is in the numbers. We cover all the difference making stats from the semi-finals to the finals.

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod. With excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

What Stats are Key at the French Open?


The semi-finals are set. Federer versus the all time clay court great, Rafa Nadal and Djokovic versus the prince of clay Dominic Thiem. All the numbers and matches that led up to the final rounds are dissected. The most interesting stat and best match of the tourney thus far are shared. What does it take to win on clay from an analytics standpoint?

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod. With excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

2nd Greatest Clay Courter?


The clay court season is in full swing. Who are the French Open Favorites? Can the all time great, Rafael Nadal, maintain his dominance at the FO despite a lackluster start to the clay this year? Who is the 2nd greatest clay courter of all time? Answers to these questions are discussed through the lens of statistics. 

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod. With excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Clay Dominance


What are Nadal’s odds at winning a French Open title this year? We break down past years and what was different the years he failed to win the French open in 2009, 2015, 2016. We also talk about Clay court theory. How to win matches on clay. We coined new phrases to better discuss those methods. Dominic Theim’s improving clay court numbers are also addressed.

Miami & Head to Head Effects


Two of the biggest Masters events of the year are over. Miami and Indian Wells crowned two different champs and again saw the rise of the Next Gen players yet the continued dominance of the establishment. We dive into head to head match ups in the sport and their influence on win probability. How big of an impact is head to head?

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod. With excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Indian Wells 2019



Ben shares his exciting experience of watching the second round in beautiful Indian Wells. As usual, we dive into the stats behind the matches. We compare the career stats of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Kyrgios and others to their numbers at IW. Listen to find out who is trending up and what stats are key to their success in the desert and the rest of the season.

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod. With excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Post Aussie Open 2019


Which players are trending up after a thrilling Australian Open? We break down the stats from the first major of the year. We also describe a new methodology for better using statistics in the sport of tennis. If you want to know how Djokovic, Nadal, Stan Wawrinka, Federer, and Tsitsipas are trending statistically then buckle up and enjoy the episode.

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod. With excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

2019 Aussie Open


The first 4 rounds of the 2019 Australian Open are in the books. The establishment is clashing with the young guns of the Next Gen. Who is left in the tournament and what exciting match ups lie ahead? We have all the numbers and analyses from the best matches.

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod. With excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

2019 Forecast


Happy Holidays from us at 15-30! The New Year is around the corner. That means more tennis. Many players are busy training preparing for glory at the Aussie Open. What will 2019 have in store? Djokovic’s continued return to dominance or a Fedal repeat of 2017? Or maybe just maybe the dawn of a new era will be formed by the minting of new champions – young and old. We have made our bold tennis predictions for 2019.

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod. With excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

End of the 2018 ATP Season

The final tournaments have ended. Victors have been crowned and upsets scored. Join us as we analyze the numbers behind the Paris Masters and the ATP World Tour Finals. Djokovic, Federer, Zverev, and Khachanov all made their moves as the season ended. How did Del Potro play statistically in 2018 compared to his peak, 2009? How does 2018 Federer stack up to 2007 Fed? These answers and more on Episode 8 of 15-30.

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod. With excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

Basel, Vienna, New Wimby Rule 2018



Federer triumphed for the ninth time at his home tourney of Basel and Nishikori lost another final, this one to Anderson at Vienna. Wimbledon introduced a new rule regarding a tiebreaker in the 5th set. How many matches will it affect? What do we have to look forward towards the end of another exhilarating tennis season? And the quest for year end world No. 1 continues…

Theme music brought to by: Kevin MacLeod. With excerpts from his song, “Cool Rock”.

US Open 2018 Recap



Novak Djokovic triumphed at the US Open. Is he back to his top form that he exhibited in 2015-2016? What about the young up and coming Next Gen players? What was the match of the 2018 US Open? Listen to the episode to find out.


Talking Tennis with Dr. Stephanie Kovalchik



Dr. Kovalchik obtained her PhD in statistics from UCLA and now works at Tennis Australia as a data scientist immersed in tennis. We talk about her findings including applying the Pythagorean win theorem to tennis, pressure ratings, and many other cutting-edge analytics that can help us better understand the modern game of tennis. Two rounds into the US Open she even gives her group’s picks for the men and women’s singles champions…

Rogers Cup, Cincinnati Masters & Beyond


Tsistpas made it all the way to the final, and upset four top 10 players en route, until his eventual defeat to Rafa Nadal in Canada. Djokovic finally defeated Federer to win the only masters that eluded him in Cincy. We bring you all the stats behind the matches as well as the preview to this year’s US Open. No male has defended his title in 10 years at the open, will Nadal defend his title?

Elo & Next Gen



In episode 3 we cover the basis for elo its power in providing statistics for match ups. We also dive into the ATP’s “Next Gen” players. The young guns: Zverev, Tsitsipas, and Kyrgios are discussed. With players like these tennis has a bright future. Zverev’s woes at the major tournaments are also discussed.

Wimbledon


15-30 A Tennis Podcast (ATP) covers the statistics of ATP tour throughout the year. The various matches Wimbledon are covered with special attention to the Federer-Anderson quarterfinal and the two record breaking semi-final matches that exhilarated tennis fans around the world. Each match is broken down by the statistical categories that had the greatest impact on the outcome. IBM keys to the match are discussed as a tool to better understand a given match. Federer and Nadal are supplanted by a rejuvenated Djokovic 10 years after their epic 5 set final that saw Nadal reach world number 1 for the first time.

15-30 Introduction


15-30 is a new tennis podcast focused on covering the ATP World Tour and the numbers behind the matches. Find out the story behind the podcast name by listening to our first episode. Numbers tell the story of why the world’s top players like Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic have managed to stay at the pinnacle of the sport. The numbers will also reveal who the young heirs to the tennis throne will be. If you are a tennis fan and you think in terms of numbers and statistics,  then this is the podcast for you!

8 Penny Pinching Tips


1. Be Conservation-Minded

Turn of the lights. Throw away less food. Being wasteful over time can accumulate in lost savings. Think of it as improving efficiency. The closer you approach money out = benefits generated the more you save! The apartment I live in is poorly insulated and heating it in the winter time is difficult. On cold nights I turn on an electric oil heater to warm up the room for a half hour before bed and then I turn it off. Taking a hot shower/bath before bed is another good way I like to warm up and avoid having to run my heater.

2. Cut the Cord

The internet has become a utility, but TV? Not so much. It’s no secret that cable TV is expensive. Not to mention the hidden fees like the broadcasting fee for the sporting event you aren’t even tuning into. Nearly everything can be streamed online via Netflix, Youtube, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, WatchESPN, and many others. Need access to live TV to watch sports or another live event? Try splitting the already discounted Youtube TV ($35 per month) or Hulu TV with family members. Buying a digital Antenna can give you access to local channels and the big players (ABC, NBC, CBS) that host big sporting events like the Superbowl or the NBA Finals.

3. Get a Roommate

Own a home and want help with the mortgage and utility bills? Splitting the costs with someone responsible is not rocket science. For so many people that spend long hours at work and commuting, the short amount of time spent at home not sleeping might be worth sharing with someone else. Renting to a roommate makes more sense than having a nearly vacant house that you pay a mortgage and utilities on.

4. Ditch the car

Cars cost money. Gasoline, insurance, normal wear and tear, and routine maintenance all add up. Not to mention the depreciation from racking up miles (or driving it off the lot), licensing/fees, and major maintenance that you hope you never have to shell out money for. The IRS mileage reimbursement rate in 2016 was 54 cents per mile. So if you’re commute is mileage intensive and costing you valuable time, consider public transportation, carpooling, or relocating closer to work. Many companies will even subsidize public transportation costs. Living 20 miles closer to work could save you an estimated $15,000 per year!

5. Minimize Eating Out

Eating out is expensive. Taxes, expensive drinks and entrees, and the tip (15-20% or more of the total) all add up. Most restaurants charge a 300% markup on the items they serve. This means that any time you spend $15 on an entree, the food only cost $5 to make. That’s how restaurants make their money despite paying waiters, cooks, managers, rent, and the cost of the food. Home cooked meals cost much cheaper especially when cooking for a large family due to economy of scale. Going out to eat should be a rattle treat. Though, Americans aren’t treating it as such. 54% of Americans eat out at least three times a week or more. Consider “brown bagging it” and packing a lunch to work. Eating leftovers can minimize the amount of food thrown away and save money in the process. We can all eat out less and our savings accounts will thank us.

6. Hold on to Things

The buy, buy consumerism might be good for the economy, but not for your pocketbook. There is a lot of junk at there. Buying junk inevitably means it won’t last long. When purchasing things, especially more expensive items, do your research and buy durable, well-reviewed products. Well-made clothes tend to last a while. Hand-me-downs are great if you have kids since they grow faster than they wear out clothes the first time around. Be maintenance minded. Keep things in good condition and you won’t have to buy things as often. Be happy with the things you have and focus on making memories.

7. Buy Generic

Not everything you buy needs to be the best brand. Plenty of things including some medications, canned food items, and other household goods are better off bought generic. Many generic items are manufactured in the same factory as name brand items. Save money, live better, and not just at Walmart.

8. Hit up Thrift Stores – functional

My dad is king at thrift shopping. Specifically at Goodwill and Desert Industries. He found a tennis racquet still in the packaging for $20 and the retail value was $200 brand new. His best thrift shop purchase was a mint condition goose down feather winter sleeping bag from goodwill for $40. The retail value was $600! I have not been as lucky. My best purchases were name brand clothes that fit well and had no stains. A vast majority of stuff donated to Goodwill and other thrift shops is junk. But beneath the layer of junk a diamond in the rough that may be right underneath your nose.

Tennis – Zen Warfare


You’re on an island. No subs or a fourth quarter buzzer to bail you out. No sport is less forgiving. You need to know when to go for it and which shot to dig out of your repertoire. It’s all out war; vicious spins, lightening fast opponents, and thundering serves. Billie Jean King once said that, “Tennis is a perfect combination of violent action taking place in an atmosphere of total tranquility.”

Sprinting to retrieve a drop shot or leaping to smash an overhead requires physical prowess. Players battle for countless hours hoping to be on the winning side when the words  “Game, set, match.” are declared. Tactically, it is akin to chess. You strive to hide your weaknesses and exploit your opponents’. A variety of strategies can be employed to keep your opponent guessing. Serving and volleying, counter-punching, power hitting, and my favorite, carefully setting up the point and ending it with the shot of your choice.

The tennis net is 3′ 6″. However, that is only the height at either side. The middle of the net is 3′, a whole 6″ shorter. This added margin allows you to hit harder cross court and worry less about hitting into the net. Additionally. hitting cross court gives you greater margins from hitting long or wide. This is due to the greater distance that the ball travels compared to the down the line shot.

Hitting down the line is not without its place. It generally takes time away from your opponent and it naturally allows you to approach the net behind your shot. However, if your opponent anticipates your down the line shot they can use numerous angles that you’ve given them to pass you or otherwise hit a winner.

Like billiards, tennis is all about angles. The closer a player is inside the baseline the more angles they can exploit.

The forehand is typically the stronger wing so one tactic to catch your opponent off guard is to hit a forehand where you would normally hit a backhand. You can then choose to direct the ball up the line a.k.a. “inside-in” or out wide a.k.a. “inside-out”. Typically inside out forehands are more effective since they are traveling over the lower part of the net and they are directed to the opponent’s weaker backhand side (for righties). One of my favorite tactics is to establish the inside-out forehand early and moving in to the net behind their weaker backhand strokes.  Later as my opponent tries to prepare for it and maybe even prepare to run around their own backhand, I occasionally direct the ball up the line instead (inside-in). Break the pattern occasionally to keep your opponent guessing. Two videos below show Roger Federer, one of the best shot makers alive, execute an inside-out and an inside-in forehand respectively. Try it, it adds a whole new dynamic and it’s fun. Those with powerful backhands sometimes even execute the rarely seen inside-out backhand.

Inside Out Forehand

A Collection of forehand winners, but where the video starts playing several inside in forehands are hit.

There is a lot more to tennis than these few tidbits. Different spins, lobs, and volleys can also be powerful. The predictive power from the statistics of the sport are also fascinating. More of that will be written on later.

Budgeting: Why do it?


Budget your money. It’s what your parents told you in college. It’s what every financial adviser implores. It’s sage advice that is so often quoted that it’s become cliché.

A 2013 Gallup poll showed that 2/3 of Americans don’t have a budget. Why are so many missing the mark? I used to be one of those that didn’t keep a budget because I’m pretty frugal and I wasn’t buying things that I didn’t need. Or so I thought. Don’t be caught in the trap that being an anemic spender is a good substitute to not having a budget. Governments and corporations keep budgets. Why? Without one how can you track progress? Money should be used to help individuals and families reach goals that they have including: college, home ownership and repairs, vacations and recreation, car purchases, retirement planning, general financial security, and more. A budget is not set in stone, only to be interpreted by judicial constructionism. It is a living document. It should be tweaked and fine tuned month-to-month to ensure you are on track to meet your goals. Think of it as a feedback control system, like cruise control in a car. If you are going up a hill the cruise control senses the speed dropping and it opens up the throttle to maintain constant speed on the hill. Similarly, if you notice one month that you had some unexpected expenses of some kind (medical bills, a speeding ticket, etc) and you’re off track to purchase a new car you can adjust your budget for the next month to allow for more of your money to be diverted to savings.

Money can be spent so easily today. Whether it’s a swipe of a card or a click of button online, it has never been easier to spend money. Budgeting keeps us accountable. It is also nice to track reoccurring bills. Through reviewing my budget and realizing that I was $10 over budget on internet I was able to call and find out why the charge was higher. I ended up getting a promotional rate that reduced my monthly bill. Once you set up your initial budget it should only take minutes to update a whole month’s expenses, especially with access to online credit card statements. If you don’t mind be data mined budgeting apps like mint.com can be great to help you keep track of your spending. Mint will even sent mobile alerts when you go over budget in a particular category.

Suit your budget to your personal needs. But don’t forget the 50-30-20 rule as a basic guideline (not an actual rule). 50% of your money should be going to fixed expenses like rent and food. 20% should go towards savings and investments. The remaining balance, in this case 30%, goes towards variable expenses like vacations and spending on non-essentials.

I have included a generic budget that I credited in excel. If you go over budget for a certain category it highlights the cell red. If you are under budget or exactly within budget it highlights the cell green. It also takes your monthly income and calculates the 50-30-20 rule categories and it highlights the cell above it in red if it is above that percentage. It is a little vanilla but it is a great start and for those looking into building a budget for the first time.

 

Here is a link to my free excel budget

 

“When performance is measured, performance improves. When performance is measured and reported, the rate of improvement accelerates”

-Thomas S. Monson

Heat Transfer in Everyday Life


Why do cars heat up so quickly in the summer and get so cold in the winter?

Why does tile feel colder than carpet?

Why do large bodies of water take so long to heat up?

Why do computers have fins embedded in their circuitry?

Let’s learn some concepts first so we can answer these questions. There isn’t a moment when heat transfer is not taking place. A bead of sweat evaporating from a warm brow, a refrigerator extracting heat from various foods and beverages and expelling it out the backside, a pot of water boiling in preparation for a delicious meal, and the sun warming a remote alpine lake to name a few.

First, heat and temperature are NOT the same thing. Heat is the flow of energy due to a temperature difference. It always flows from hot to cold. How amazing would it be if when touching a hot stove, heat transferred out of a hand into the already hot stove? Instead heat predictably dissipates from the hot temperature body to the cooler one it’s in contact with. As humans we crave nothing more than comfortable temperatures. We yearn for warmth to escape the cold of winter and the refreshing coolness from air conditioning on a brutal summer day. Our preferences are so strong that men and women stereo-typically never seem to agree on the optimal temperature. Better understanding the principles of heat transfer can help us better enjoy and understand the world around us.

The three modes of heat transfer are:

  • Conduction
  • Convection
  • Radiation

Conduction

Conduction is the physical contact of two substances at different temperatures. Collisions at the atomic level transfer heat through the length of the material and eventually to the material(s) it is in contact with. The governing equation is:

where Q = the amount of heat transferred, k = the object’s thermal conductivity. A = Surface area,  ΔT = the temperature difference, t = the object’s thickness

It is an intuitive equation, if surface area increases the number of molecular interactions increases and therefore the quantity of heat transfer increases. Increasing the thickness of the metal makes it tougher to transfer heat. The most interesting quantity is thermal conductivity, k. Thermal conductivity is a material property. Copper metal pots transfer heat to food much more efficiently than ceramic pots do due to their higher thermal conductivity. Metal, due to their abundance of free electrons, have high thermal conductivity values. This is why cars heat up in the summer and get frigid in the winter. The metal that makes up the car transfers heat very efficiently; it quickly reaches the temperature of its environment. This is why we don’t insulate our homes with metal. The entire purpose of insulation is to pick a material that has low thermal conductivity to minimize the heat flow into or out of a home.

The answer to the above question, “why tile feels colder than carpet?” is also answered by thermal conductivity. Assume that the temperature in a home is at a constant 70 °F. The tile somehow feels colder than carpet or even hardwood though they are all at the same bulk temperature of 70 °F.  The Surface area and thickness remain constant between the surfaces. The internal temperature of a human is about 98.6 °F so the temperature difference is 98.6 °F – 70 °F = 28.6 °F. It feels colder to a person touching the tile so the heat transferred, Q must be greater compared to carpet and hardwood. Thermal conductivity is the difference maker not temperature. The Engineering Toolbox has tabulated values of thermal conductivity for a variety of materials. The thermal conductivity of tile is 172 times better than wool carpet at transferring heat. The data for the calculations is found below:

k, tile (W/m*K)k, hardwood (W/m*K)k, carpet (W/m*K)Q, tile (W)Q, hardwood (W)Q, carpet (W)
50.160.02979.442.540.461

Water has a thermal conductivity of 0.58 compared to air which has a much lower value of 0.024. Based on thermal conductivity alone water should heat up faster than air. However, from experience we all know that is not the case. There is another thermodynamic property that causes large bodies of water to take longer to heat up compared to air, heat capacity. Heat capacity is the amount of energy it takes to cause one gram of substance to rise one degree Celsius. A calorie by definition is the amount of energy to cause 1 gram of water to rise by 1 degree Celsius.  The equation for heat capacity is found below:

where c = specific heat capacity (J/g°C), Q = heat (J), m = mass of substance (grams), ΔT = the temperature difference (°C)

Water’s inter-molecular hydrogen bonding allows more energy to be stored in those bonds before a temperature change is manifest. Water’s heat capacity is 10x greater than iron’s and 4x greater than air’s. This explains the disparity in temperature rise as the air heats up and the lake water remains cold throughout the spring. A lake requires 4x the energy transferred that the air does to see a 1 degree temperature rise.

Convection

Convection is the transfer of heat by a fluid via bulk flow. Getting cooled down by the wind and cooking pasta with boiling water are two examples.

As particles heat up they rise due to their lower density and by so doing transfer heat and allow other particles to heat up and so on. Boiling is the best example of this. Nucleate bubbles rise as they are heated until they collapse at the surface transferring heat throughout the pot. The equation for convection is found below:

where Q = heat (J), h = the convection coefficient (W/m^2*K), T∞ = the temperature of the bulk fluid (K), Ts = the temperature of the surface being heated (K).

The convection coefficient is a function of the fluid and the speed of that fluid among other factors. Water has higher h values than air which should makes sense because water is more dense and would transfer more heat due to the increased amount of molecules a given surface is in contact with. Convective coefficient values also increase as the velocity of the fluid increases. This is why fans are used to cool electronics; air is more efficient in convective heat transfer when the hotter air is blown away. This is called forced convection. The Engineering Toolbox created the plot below that shows the relationship between the speed of air and its convection coefficient.

Air - heat transfer coefficient

Computers have fans in their cicuitry to increase the convection coefficient, but they also use fins. Heat leaves the computer and travels up the long thin fins before the air cools it via forced convection. The fins don’t affect the heat transfer coefficient. Instead they increase the surface area which also increases heat transfer and prevents the computer from overheating. A picture of this type of heat transfer optimization is found below.

Radiation

Radiation is the emission of electromagnetic energy by a substance and the absorption of that energy by another substance. Simply put, any time you see something that is bright/red hot like a coal or the sun it is transferring heat via radiation.  The math behind radiation is complex, but the bottom line is the closer an object is to a black body the better the heat transfer. As we all know wearing dark colored shirts is not a good way to stay cool in the summertime!

Now most of the time, there are multiple methods of heat transfer simultaneously occurring for a given situation. However, one method usually predominates. I hope this post was instructive and you will look for instances of heat transfer in your own life.

*How Things Work Now is an excellent book with basic explanations covering an array of technical subjects including heat transfer. A link to buy the book is found here

Compound Interest: Make it Work for You


 


 

When Albert Einstein was asked what mankind’s greatest invention was his reply likely stunned many engineers and scientists of his time. His reply was not the vaunted steam engine or any of the other brilliant technological advances. His reply was: compound interest. If we understand compound interest we will avoid paying it and strive to make it work for us. The concepts behind it are critical in planning for retirement. Einstein also referred to compound interest as the, “Eighth wonder of the world.” The key is time. Compound interest is an exponential function and the higher the interest rate the more quickly an investment or debt reaches rapid growth.

where P = principal, FV = Future Value,    r = interest rate, n = compounding period, and t = time

The exponent term “nt” does the heavy lifting. The greater the time and number of compounding periods the greater the exponent. The number of compounding periods is usually not controllable, but time is.

Stocks, bonds, and cash (held in a high yield savings account) are shown below graphically. These calculations are based on assuming a conservative rate of return of 8% annually for an index fund based on the S&P 500, a 2.8% return for a portfolio entirely of bonds based on the last 30 years of U.S. Treasury returns, and a meager 1% return from a high yield savings account. Many employers match retirement funds up to a certain percentage. Contribute the full amount to get the full match. Few investments will yield 100% return; it would be foolish to turn down free money. The full equation that takes into account a constant monthly payment is found below:

PPMTr, savingsr, bondsr, stocks
$1k$5001%2.8%8%

 

With an initial investment of $1,000 and monthly payments of $500 per month and interest compounded monthly the following plot is obtained.

 

 

The graph illustrates the importance of time. All investments look almost identical even up through year 10. This is due to the bounds of the graph. The amounts are substantially different but not relative to the future value at year 40.

 

YearSavings BondsStocks
10$64,180$70,472$93,693

 

However, given enough time small monthly payments of $500 lead to a significant sum of money. I chose 40 years assuming you start investing in your mid-twenties and retire in your mid-sixties. Investing in your twenties is the best thing you can do to for your retirement account. The exponent is proportional to time and those dollars contributed in your twenties will compound many more times than dollars contributed later on in life. Over 40 years this particular fund entirely based on stocks yields $1.8 million dollars!

It is recommended to have enough money for retirement to replace 70-90% of your current annual income. Depending on your salary and how luxurious you want to live in retirement you should check now to make sure you are stocking enough money away (pun intended) to secure your future. Taxes will eat a chunk of your cash and the discussion of Roth versus traditional 40lk/IRA is a post for another day. Inflation is easy to take into account. The average annual inflation rate is 2%. Simply subtract that from the investment’s rate of return to get a real return of investment. The same data set from above is graphed with inflation taken into account.

 

 

This plot should further convince you that stocks should be the predominant investment in any retirement portfolio if you hope to see significant growth. Bonds and cash are useful to protect those who are about to retire from the volatility of the stock market and are good for portfolio diversification. The spreadsheet I used to generate these graphs is provided below. An iterative approach would be to adjust the monthly payment number until your retirement goal appears on the graph. Please use it as a resource to help you meet your retirement goal no matter how far away it is. The time to plan is now. Compound interest favors those who invest early and often. In the words of Abraham Lincoln, “I will prepare and some day my chance will come.”

 

 

Excel Spreadsheet Free Download:

Investment Spreadsheet Calculations

 

*Disclaimer: I am not a certified financial adviser and the content of this article is not meant to substitute for professional financial advice.